GBP/YEN

USD/JPY

Chart Of the Day EUR/USD

EUR/USD

Technical Approach

EUR/USD
AUD/USD
GBP/USD

All three pairs have closed the week below the 21 EMA on the daily Chart.

AUD/USD respected the trend line coming form the weekly chart and is in between the Trend line and 200 SMA. The pair found support at the trend line after breaking the 20SMA on the H4 chart.

EUR/USD Broke the 200SMA and found support around 1.4800 level. Last week was closed below 200 SMA.

GBP/USD closed below the 21 EMA on the daiy but is still above the 200 SMA on the H4 chart.

DOLLAR INDEX: Strong resistance at 75.75 and Support levels around 75.40 then 75.30 and 75.20. Lowest support level at 74.66.
A break above 75.75 with a retest will confirm the bullish trend for Dollar index and we might see change in the direction in all the majors.

My trading strategy

1: Keeping the 200SMA and 21EMA as my resistance levels on the AUD/USD and EUR/USD
2: Will wait for the right opportunities to inter relay with the technical picture and place my trades.
3: Lower and PRE define my risk.
4: Trade only with 1:3 R/R ratio.

have a great week

AUD/USD

EUR/USD back below 1.5000 (A Key Level)

EUR/USD

EUR/USD Hourly Picture

EUR/USD Asian Session

See chart

EUR/USD

EUR/USD

According to weekly chart the pair is still bullish. However, 1.5000 level is and has become even more of a stronger resistance as pair failed to close above 1.5000 level.

Daily Chart: Pair is still holding above the Bullish Trend line drawn from Weekly chart. The pair found support on 21 EMA and found support at 1.4820 after double testing that price level.

H4 Chart
200 SMA comes around 1.4820 and is acting as a strong support (DOUBLE TEST/ RETEST). Even the rice level moved above the daily PP but the pair was not able to break the trend line (Remained below it). Market closed the price below the 21SMA on the H4 Chart. ADX still below 30 But you can see OSMA and Stoch on the chart for reference (Attached).

Note: Pair also held the Daily PP on the H1 chart after a retest. (Key Level to watch).
Busy week for USD. (See ECO Calender)

My trading approach:

1: Short on the pair as market will breath before moving up as the week starts.
3: Long on the pair if it holds the daily PP, 21 EMA and breaks the Trend line on the H1 chart. (Watching OSMA, ADX and other Moving averages along)
4: Waiting for the trend line to be tested on the H4 chart before going long also if the pair hold the 21EMA (then I will keep the 21 as a support) on the pair till 1.5000 level.
5: Rest will be determined by the market and it will tell where its going and will act accordingly.

Note: Gold and AUD are again looking to set higher highs.

H4 and H1 Charts

EUR/USD after the anticipated move

EUR/USD

H1 Picture

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD bulls are looking to score.

EUR/USD Daily Picture

Bulls seems to be back in control.

See Chart

EUR/USD Technical View Point

EUR/USD: Pair hold a strong trend line and is above 1.4900.

Next target if the pair moves above 1.4968 Fib level will be 1.5053.

A move below 1.4829 will open doors for 1.4715 (trend line).


Technical picture is still bullish.
Support at 1.4885
Trend line at 1.4900

EUR/USD Latest development

EUR/USD broke the trend line on a H4 chart. Dollar might see a day or two of straightening. This can be a correction as the trend is Bearish for Dollar.

Thought:
If EUR/USD on H2 and then on H4 chart have Moving averages (EMA 10 with 90) crossover then we might see a dip towards 1.4720. Dollar might see a day or two of straightening. This can be a correction as the trend is Bearish for Dollar.

EUR/USD

The pair moved above 1.4900 and found resistance at 1.4915/17 Level. There is a support around 1.4858 level.

1.4915 can also be considered a C.

Opening Price: 1.4887

See Chart

USD/JPY See chart

Pair broke a key level at 90.50 and managed to stay above it.

See chart

AUD/USD See Chart

See Chart H4

USD/JPY has a lot of room for upside but!!

USD/JPY
Even the dollar lost its early gains against Yen the pair only retraced and came down to test some levels and since then it is holding a key level.

The pair has a lot of room towards upside but its is in a bearish trend. Any break below 50.0 retracment level (This level comes after the pair broke the inner bearish trend line).

The pair is still bearish but has a lot of room till the First long term resistance level that comes around 94.50.

See Chart H4

EUR/USD H4Technical Picture

See the H4 chat

EUR/USD New Development

The pair is developing a Twizzer top on a weekly chart.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD is again attracting Bulls to score one more time. The target is around 1.4874.
Daily chart shows bulls in control. Weekly chart: Beginning of the week showed the impression of an evening star but latest developments have shown that the bulls are still in control.

See Daily Chart.

AUD/USD Fresh High and Still bullish

The pair is still bullish with last C at 0.8873

There has to be an indication before Bears enter the market.

Strongly bullish

My trade
Long at 0.8900
Stop loss at 0.8870
Take Profit 0.8925

AUD/USD

The pair is strongly bullish with commodities gaining across the board is fueling the pair to target for another high for the year.
Oil above USD70 Gold above USD1010


My Trade

Entry: Long 0.8760
T/P 0.8820
T/L 0.8740

GreenBack and Recovery.

1: GreenBack Weakness.

USD weaker despite data out of US showing Positive signs of Economic Recovery (Slowing the pace of Negative Growth). Even though the US Treasury is working on Supporting a Stronger Dollar the weakness in GreenBack persists. Technically it is still holding a Floor with significant pressure.

Faith of Green Back lies in the question.

Will USA be the leader in Global Recovery?

I personally think, “YES", United States Economy will provide and lead the world towards a Stronger Growth. It is just that United States is going through a lot of Changes and is in the process of accepting the changes made and the ones being made. Realizing our global position and Greenback’s effect in the global market Dollar’s demand has a "Prolonged Projection". The times might change where weakness in the currency brings Strength in the Domestic Economy. Inside out Rule....which will bring greater opportunity of Investment and Development.

Answer leading to a second Question:

What Kind?

We don't want a Recovery that is based on sharp lifts in “Economic Data” showing Recovery and or “Gains”. Sharp jumps tend to increase risk of Sharp Dips leading to “A Unstable and A Weaker Growth”. The Strong and Stable Growth should always lead to “Equity” which is the key to establishing a stronger base. Compassion and Justice must be the leading Elements.

GreenBack might be moving in the opposite direction that of Recovery.


2: Rally in Equity Markets.
Equity Markets.. Mostly we have seen a stable 45 Degree Leaner Rise since we hit the bottom.

Market Recovery might be W Shaped. Double confirmation of the bottom. Double V: VV

3: Gold Strength.
While Dollar was Showing weakness GOLD prices were stable (Fluctuation in between a Range 930-960). Its Catching up with Dollar weakness. Which might lead to further Greenback Weakness?


I don’t see major Selling till 1010 - 1050 but if it dips below 976.25 (Support Level) we might see "Bearish Resistance"..

EUR/USD H1 Chart Bearish in a Bull trend.

See Chart

EUR/USD H4 Chart

If trading on H1 chart one should follow H4 chart.

EUR/USD Aug 1609

EUR/USD Testing a strong Support Level.

See Chart H4

EUR/USD Another Tail!!!! See Chart

EUR/USD after creating a Bear Trap and confirming a strong Long Term Support around 1.4125 level moves up. Bear trap with a price level staying above the 100 and 200 Bar Moving average on 5 min chart...the market might looks Bullish. (Strong) 1.4247 is the next resistance level.

See Chart

USD/JPY

Daily Chart

EUR/USD Preparing to take the High of the Year 09(Todate).

A Strong Bullish trend line.

See Chart.

MetaTrader4: ADD FEBONACCI LEVEL 78.6

MetaTrader4

Here are the custom Fib levels I typically watch:

Any "retracement" beyond 100% is a reversal.

Sometimes using Fibs in combination with other indicators and also a larger time frame you can catch the reversal earlier.

Level 0 0.146 0.236 0.382 0.5 0.618 0.786 0.86 0.942 1 -0.18 -0.27 -0.382 -0.618 -1 -1.618 -3.236

Description 0.0 - %$ 14.6 - %$ 23.6 - %$ 38.2 - %$ 50.0 - %$ 61.8 - %$ 78.6 - %$ 86.0 - %$ 94.2 - %$ 100.0 - %$ 118.0 - %$ 127.0 - %$ 138.2 - %$ 161.8 - %$ 200.0 - %$ 261.8 - %$ 423.6 - %$

Greenback (Weaker or Stronger)!!!

....a weaker US Dollar will help US emerge Stronger and Stable. As we put an additional effert in that Goal.

A Weak to A Strong to A Stable Economy (Infrastructure) ....that should be the direction.

A weaker USD...will also help in Exporting American Products. However, a weaker USA doesn't mean that Central Banks around the world wont be buying Treasuries and Investors wont be investing. It is just that the investors are diversifying and so are We! Global Market competition is growing and offcourse once there is a competition then everything is based upon performance and practicle implamation of Strategies to drive results. Results that are positive and Strategies that provide Stable and Stronger Growth from within.

The markets (Investors) know that USA contains Debit and with big failures in Banking, Mortgage, Industrial and other Major sectors of economic structure.......~!!! I guess that speaks for itself...

USA is the biggest consumer which means we import a lot...now Strategies have to be implemented differently as the market trend changes. All the stimulus pumped in for growth will help but only if the Positive results are and can be derived. Plus, Results will imerge with time as we see the practical Implementaion of Strategies by our new Administration. A very tough time for USA as we stumble from within....but be cautious we are hitting the bottom after a free fall...which will be leading to a consolidation period.

So Greenback stays weaker as others keep providing (projecting) a strong competition.

Recovery From Economic Crisis

Absolutely, things will get better...but we have to keep in mind..this economic crisis started from the top and came down and crashed on the bottom (Street). So, the recovery will and is going to be seen first on the top and then gradually it will (eventually) hit main street (Middle class, People looking for jobs, fresh graduates, businesses and those who really suffered during this turmoil ETC.). Its like a chain and the leader has to lead us out of this crisis because it was the leader that led us to it.

So, if China, Japan and other economies like them have been hit hard due to US. Then yes, when things will get better here on Wall Street and Financial Institutions will have stability, more and more signs of inner growth will be visible, the consumption will get back on track that will automatically bring the production on its way to better levels ahead.

However, we should learn from our mistakes and observe and restructure our strategies to lead the world out of this crisis by keeping us safe and secured. I believe our new administration led by Mr. Obama will have a strong and long lasting impact on our countries economic growth from within. The more powerful we are from inside the better of we are in confronting any challenge that lies ahead .

Us economy is back on track: Yes, I think so we have hit the bottom (too early to confirm) but the economy is a state of Consolidation....the recovery platform is really fragile. It will take at least 3 to 9 month for us to really confirm that we are moving upwards with a strong base. New administration is placing all the right tool to make the recovery with strong and stable platform so that for sure we see a recovery (Growth).

As far as the street level is concerned: I am involved in retail business as well and for sure people (regulars) are suffering...jobs are hard (Almost Impossible) to find....A lot of people are and using their savings and most of them are now broke as they been out looking for job and its tough.
Plus, It is hard to find something when you are desperate...especially job/ work...because each door you knock during hard times seems to be the only hope out of present situation and definitely present job market is not helping at all. (Skilled, Experienced, Educated and fresh all looking for work).


It is obvious that the Global Economic crisis is hitting the bottom (Japan, Germany, Spain, US, China) and other leading economies are doing whatever necessary and possible to make this not last for years to come.

This is what I think we need for a stronger growth....

1: Stable Financial Institutions.
2: Better and Stronger Regulations for Consumer. Policies that help rather than abuse.
3: Stronger Regulatory Bodies. The ones that evaluate and reevaluate Institutions, organizations and infrastructures of businesses around the country.
4: Credit Flow. For the help and use according to ones means and ability to afford.
5: Stronger Infrastructure. Federal and Local Government.
6: A Strong Educational System (That educates and prepares our generation to compete, be innovative and Constructive on the bases of Compassion, Equity and Justice).
7: Health Care system that protects the poor and middle class rather than crippling them.
8: Cost Effective Transportation and Technology system for people.
9: A Strong Foreign Policy that put/ places USA in a stronger and a better shoe. A Nation that Cooperates with its Allies and others, Leads to conflict resolution, a Nation that is Innovative, Strong and Powerful when approaching its Counters and the one that leads and supports others through difficult situations/ times....All by keeping us more safe, productive, effective and strong.