CHART OF THE WEEK

See Chart: GBP/USD H4

GOLD UPDATE

GOLD once again looks bullish after a pull back.

1226.64 can be considered a strong support (already retested).
First target is around 1290-96.

I consider this move another entry point for a short to medium term bull move by keeping 1226.42 as a support level.

WEEK June 6 - 11

Over all market sentiment is bearish.
DJ and S&P are at crucial levels.

I will take a slow start this week and see how things turn out by middle of the week. We have very busy calender for the week.


EUR/USD:

Broke a very important psychological level of 1.2
I am still bearish on the pair but with caution.

1.16 - 1.14 is the fair value price for the EUR under the current circumstances.

1.2143/47 is the resistance level I am watching.


WEEK OPEN 1.1927 above that short term bulls will take profits and below that bears might push the pair further.



GBP/USD

1.4768 level has been tested on the weekly chart.
Pair over all is looking to make lower lows.

Note: Pound is always a good buy on the big dips.

Dollar Index

The index broke a key resistance level on the weekly chart 87.45.
Now targeting 89.63.




Have a great week of trading.

Trading Uptill Today

Have been very busy with a management work. Been trading on the daily chart and maintaining my consistency.

Equity generated in last 2 weeks. 12%

Win to Loss ratio: 84%

P.S: Hoping to get back in to the day trading by end of this month..till then position trading.

CHART of the WEEK will be posted on Sunday.

GBP/JPY Follow up (Chart of the week)

The pair continues towards its long term target.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

AUD/USD seems to bee on the bottom of the current channel with a possibility to retrace a little bit after a steep fall.

See H4 Technical Picture

Chart Of the Week May 16 - 21

GBP/JPY

The pair seems to be targeting 119.76 region (See Technical picture).

See Chart H4.

Week End May 9 - 14

EUR/ USD Continued a steady decline. 1.2334 is a ground 0.0 for the pair that is where in 2008 the pair stopped its decline and retraced upto 1.51 region.

Glod made fresh highs and it is holding strongly on to its current trend.


My trading:

This week I mostly traded with small lot size and specially positioning them.

I recorded over 620 pips in a week. My highest pip gain for a week in my trading career.

Once again its proven that commitment to patience and consistency pays for itself as the opportunities fold in front of you.

On the equity gain side gains of 2.4 percent.


Total Trades: 30

Wins: 22
Losses: 8

Win to Loss Ratio: 73.3%

EUR/USD week open

EUR/USD opens the week 178 pips higher then the last weeks closing price.

Week May 09 - 14

Gold is above 1191 and have retested that level on the daily chart. Also my first target on gold this year is hit 1207.

See daily chart.










USD/JPY see daily chart










GBP/USD back above a 1.4781 a Strong support level.
Resistance expected around 1.4933/40 and support 1.4781 and below that 1.4643.


EUR/USD expecting a selling pressure near 13000 if it retraces. However, the out look for this pair is very bearish. For me the fair price level for EUR is around 1.12 - 1.15/16 (Seeing the current EU debt conditions and drop in ratings of EU members). But we are far away from there.

Resistance: 1.2790, 1.2821, 1.2890 and then 1.3001

Support: 1.2603 and below that 1.2521 and then 0.0 level at 1.2327. If the pair breaks 1.2327 and hold as strong resistance on the daily or weekly chart then the nest target should be around 1.15 region.

Week Close (May 07)

A very sharp move in futures to currencies and major indexes.

Trading: I was trying to stay away from these big moves. Some places I missed the opportunity for entry and then decided its better to stay out rather getting eaten up by the market or in this case the markets just kept on going and going and going. Specially all major currencies had a pretty much straight fall (breaking lot of support levels). Dollar index rallied. Yen also gained a lot of strength against dollar in one day. Gold as usual broke and pushed above 1191 level.



Total traders 28
Losses 10
Profits 18

Total gain for the week: 3.44 percent

Win to Loss ratio: 64.2%

A very strong move

1:Gold breaks a strong resistance level at 1191.24 and moves above USD1200/ounce.

2: DJ and S&P have changed their direction and have turned into bearish territory with a strong move in late market action. At one point today Dow Jones was down by more than 9%, its worst fall since 1987, before starting to recover.

EUR/ USD May 4

EUR/USD First long term target hit at1.2969.
and market moved below it for a bonus round.

We are not trying to score tops and bottoms :)

WEEK - MAY 2 - 7

A very busy week for all the majors: Expecting a lot of movement.

EUR/USD opens the week higher Short term resistance going upwards should be 1.3341, 1.3388, 1.3414 and above that is 100 and 200 SMA on the H4 chart. On the down side 1.3266, 1.3208, 1.3141.

SEE H4 CHART









Gold as usual bullish out look on the daily chart. If the short term trend changes for a pull back Ill find opportunities to buy on the strong rebounds.


USD/JPY is hanging above 93.78. I have a long entry from last week on this pair with a very small stop loss on the daily chart. 100 and 200 SMA on the daily chart are converging for a bullish cross over as well

SEE DAILY CHART









GBP/USD Lets see what the UK elections bring to the table. 1.5252 is a strong support and 1.5390 resistance going up. For the moment on the H1 chart pair is finding resistance around 1.5353


SEE H1 CHART

Week end

US : Economy grew here in USA at a very stable rate good for FED's consideration to raise rates...if growth stabilizes.

EUR/USD: moved back below 1.3291 level and found support and is looking to close the week above 1.3300.

As far as performance is concerned:

A very good start; after 2 very bad days but then getting back into the zone took a nice long nap and a visit to the gym and here you go back on track.

I still feel a little upset on the performance that I showed this week. But hey recognition and correction is important. One having the ability and potential has nothing to worry except just being patient and following steps to get back on track.

Confidence is a key element to success in the trading profession.

Equity Curve for this week.

Gold: April 30, 2010

Gold

Is on its way to the first target this year 1207/Ounce

1145.10 is where it found a strong support.

See daily Chart:

April (Equity Curve)

Week 25 - 30 April

Very slow month for me and last week took the biggest draw down for the week and the month this year.

Anyways, a new week, a fresh perspective and all focus on probability and maintaining discipline.


Gold: As usual buying dips in the price action below USD1110/ Ounce. First support level 1145/41. and below 1123 and then 1087, 1071 and the yearly support level 1041.

EUR/USD: Greece debt concern is still there...even though they have requested the bailout fund but investors are looking at as to how Greece is going to manage all this debt and structure its policies that will cut costs/ spending and generate some revenue.

Reference article: Crisis not over:

I am bearish on EUR/USD any rallies that are in this pair are likely to cap out and sold once again till we have a clear picture of EUR's stability.

Dont take me wrong weaker EURO is also good for the regional exports.

Weekly chart: A kangaroo tail
Daily Chart: A very strong bullish candle from last weeks lows around 1.3200

The pair is 100 pips above 1.3270 a key level moving down wards.

above 1.3270 is 1.3335 and the 1.3358/61

Resistance around 1.3413 and 1.3435 major resistances above 1.3470

Last week: pair closed below 100Hr SMA.

My picks: Sell around 1.3475 and or below 1.3320
Short term long above 1.3358

GBP/USD: Daily candle closed in decision: but left a long tail: sign of reversal at least a day or so.

Support: 1.5346, 1.5291 and then 1.5181

Resistance: 1.5380 and then 1.5397

Pair is maintaining the trend line and it is above 21EMA on the H4 and daily chart.


USD/JPY back above 93.78 support level and maintaining a trend line on the daily chart.

EUR/USD

Pair broke above 1.3300 level ..however, due to better ECO data coming out of US the Dollar is once again in control.However, pair is still far from today's low.

New Homes Sales due in next20 min.

1.3273 and then 1.3256 levels to be watched atm.

After a Break

A nice and productive break from charts, news and the world of trading.Good 10 days ;)


Will start the ship of trading on Thursday with PPI, Unemployment claims and E Home sales data coming out of US.

Equity Curve Mar 9 - April 7

Total Trades:		51		Short Positions (won %):				22 (77.27%)	Long Positions (won %):			29 (75.86%)
Profit Trades (% of total):								39 (76.47%)	Loss trades (% of total):			12 (23.53%)

WEEK April 4 - 9

Pretty calm start for a very busy week for Dollar, Pound and Euro.

A week for Fundamentals.

EUR/USD: I see on h4 and h1 head and shoulder formation.
I am only looking to short after trend line break and retest.
Immediate Support around 1.3481.

See H1 chart






GBP/USD Consolidating near 1.5300
Resistance 1.5293 (Double top)

I expect Feds to change their language at least and or do something about interest rates.

Everyone is waiting for FED's as we saw on Friday NFP showed improvement in US job market.

I am long on Dollar (Short term) and buying dips in Gold.

Weekend

Fed's looking to meet on April 5 (unexpected meeting).....Lets see if they are going to raise rates and or ?
Eyes on Monday now.

EUR/USD almost no change for the week.

USD/JPY moves above 93.78 daily resistance level. Now next target around 97.20

GBP/USD finding resistance at 1.5295 immediate support around 1.5125. At the moment trading near 1.5190

Dollar index showing bullish signs: But still in the short term bearish channel but on the top side.

-----------------------------------------------------

Close:

10 Trades
2 Negative
8 positive
80% win to loss ratio

4.59% Equity gain.

EUR/USD Week open

Pair opens 45 pips above its closing price.
Lets see if we can hold these gains and move above 1.35 level.

Support: 1.3461 / 1.3434/47 then 1.3380
Resistance: 1.3503

Pair is trading above 1.3460 atm.

Week Mar 28 - Apr 2

Gold: Again found support below 1100 / ounce.
1074 remains a key support level and below 1045.
Dips in gold price is attractive for investors (buy side).
Main resistance remains around 1140.90 level.

See daily chart:








EUR/USD: After a free fall pair have rebounded back but is in pull back not change of trend.
Support: 1.3388 and below that 1.3306 and then the low of last week 1.3267. First Resistance zone: 1.3430 - 1.3464 area. Trend is your friend and fundamentals for EURO are not in a strong support of EURO strength. I will be looking for shorts near major resistance levels and or breaking of support levels.

See H4 Chart:









GBP/USD:
Lately I have been following this pair a lot...hope to start trading this pair full time. Adding it to my primary trading pair.
Last week Pound fell to test 1.4781 area key support going down. However, the pair is still under a lot of pressure (Bearish). Going up 1.5011 will be a key resistance level.

See chart H1:











====================================
Last Close: Mar 26, 2010

Total Trades 145
Negative: 35
Positive: 110

Win to loss ratio 75.86 %

Equity Curve +12.01 %

===================================

Week Mar 21- 26

Pretty busy week for USD, GBP and EUR.
Economic Calender at : http://www.forexfactory.com

EUR/USD: Pair moved sharply towards the major support levels 1.3500/ 1.3457/ 1.3434
On the down side Ill be watching a break of 1.3500 with targets set depending upon market sentiment.

GBP/USD: Big move above 1.53 level and a big move down. Now the pair is testing a strong support level after falling below 1.51.
Support at 1.4979. If the pair breaks this level and retests ill be short on the pair.
1.5062 resistance I am watching.

Dollar index: 79.51 double bottom/ support and 81.11 first resistance if the index can hold above 80.57.
Above 81.11 is 81.34 double tops and then 82.30 will be the next target.



My focus: 1: No mid candle entry.
2: Act on my edge's without reservations.
3.: Have fun.

Week End

EUR/USD moved back sharply beyond expectations.
Mainly after US President signed a new bill in law which should boost employment and provide tax incentives to employers if they hire this year. A good step to put Americans back to work.

GBP/USD had a good push above 1.5300 after UK employment picture showed sings of growth but wasn't able to hold due to previously mentioned reason (New Bill).

Eyes on Dollar Strength:
Dollar Index rebounded around a strong support level 79.55/ 51 and is near the top of its consolidation range.

Gold dipped sharply in the last trading day. Resistance around 1130.
If you see the daily chart...I see a head and shoulder formed and this time gold might dip lower to test the 1074 area. We will see how things shape up next week.

See Daily Chart:







::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
My Trading: A pretty week start for me however, at the end of the week I was able to have some good trades that helped my come back into the positive territory.

Total Trades: 45 (12 negative and 33 Positive)

73 % Win to loss ratio with 122 PIPS.

Equity 3.3 percent from the last weeks close.


LESSONS REVISED:

Candle close and open entry: As my mentor have mentioned several times, " Breaking your rules is like cheating yourself". Very true...Keeping yourself Integrity plays a big role in one's consistent success.

So this week I have violated some of my basic rules of trading.

1: Over trading (Specially after couple of losses)
2: Mid Candle entry.

However, I was able to realize my mistakes and stopped trading (for one day) during the week to reevaluate and found out exactly what has happening and then came back with a fresh mind set and did what I am good at..follow my method/ set of rules and trade.

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DOLLAR INDEX H4

EUR/USD Moves above the weeks opening price

EUR/USD: Pair broke a strong ressitence level at 1.3777 and is trading above 1.3800
Next target should be 1.3845 and then a fib target.

See H4 chart:

Week Open Mar 14 - 19

Gold:

Breaking a trend line and the price level below 21 EMA and 100 SMA. Key resistance moving upwards 1110.37

See Daily Chart:









EUR/USD

Broke key levels and now finding resistance at 1.3777.
We might see bullishness in the pair see weekly chart. The decision candle was a bullish one.
Pair should find support at 1.3726 and or 1.3691.
Very busy week for Dollar so I will be watching S&P, Oil, Dj and Dollar index before taking any positions.

1.3777 break and retest is a go for a long for me . See weekly chart as 1.3887 is the next target.
However, pair might see some retracment.
See Weekly chart:











Weekly Goals:

1: Stay Consistent and minimize risk.
2: Focus on momentum and price action as well as other references before taking positions (Short term)

Week End

86% Win to Loss Ratio this week : Gains 8.23% higher than last weeks close.

Total Trades: 37 Wins: 32 Losses: 5

EUR/USD Testing

EUR/USD is testing a strong resistance levels : Which includes 200SMA, trend line from last years high and a short term target level 1.3735. If we break and retest we might move above 1.3800 next week.

If you evaluate the weekly chart: The candles in decision leading to a bullish decision (of this week) can push the pair up toward major psychological level 1.4000

See H4 chart:







Note: Levels I am watching are marked with yellow horizontal lines.

AUD/USD Target hit

Pair reaches its short term target now eyes on unemployment number:

See Chart H4.

EUR/USD Mar 10 Close to NY close.

Dollar index and EUR/USD keeps consolidating in a range.
If you see the H4 and daily charts of Dollar index and EUR/USD
Both are in a consolidation phase:

EUR/USD 1.3663/93 tops and 1.3548/51 bottoms. Candle close is the key for entry.

See UER/USD H1 chart.

GBP/USD H1 Chart

EUR/USD Next target

EUR/USD bounced of the 1.3624 support level. on H4 chart we have a clear ABC and now shooting for D .

See chart:








Entry 1.3653 t/p target one hit 1.3682.
Waiting for re entry around 1.3665 and or above 1.3693.

My target for EU is we can hold and retest 1.3735 will be 1.3919.

Weekly OverView Mar07-Mar12

Last week we saw some bearishness in the dollar index: that might be due to some profit taking.

However, this weeks opening price is higher than last weeks close on some of the majors.


AUD/USD: Opens above a key support resistance level .9071 and above 100 day moving average. I am looking for a retest of Support level 0.9071/ 0.9041 and or 0.9021
If we can hold above these levels the pair might move towards a next strong resistance level at 0.9167

See H1 Chart:










EUD/USD

Opens the week stronger and above a lot of strong key support levels. A retest will assure the bullishness in the pair.

1.3594 is a key level that I will be watching as a strong support. On the upside strong resistance is around 1.3668 and then 1.3772 : 200 SMA and the trend line comes around that level as well on H4 chart.

See chart H1:








Gold: I see a lot of resistance and pressure near 1140 level. However, that pressure might ease after the end of first quarter.
For key levels see previous blog history.

Dollar index is moving sideways in between 81.11 and 80.07.

S&P and DJ I am waiting for a pull back before moving higher (Bullish trend): 1122 on S&P 500 is a key support and 10436 on DJ.

Week End Analysis

USA:
NFP have been stable no a change in Unemployment. Economists are looking for a better number for this month as Census jobs will be an addition.

EUR:
GREECE: Successfully pulls off a five-billion euro bond issue that was massively over-subscribed, indicating the investors loved the 6.5% yield: The Star: The bond was three times oversubscribed – meaning demand exceeded available bonds....a positive sign...

Lets see what will be a next issue in Europe that can drag and or support Euro. :)



USD/JPY has shown a strong change in trend on H1 and H4 chart breaking some key levels like 88.88 and 89.50....at the moment holding above 90.20.

Gold holding strongly above 1130.85 level (See chart on the blog for ref.)

S&P 500 above a key level 1123.15 (Tech) and CME number 1122..if we can hold this strongly bullish.

My performance have been documented as 4.83% higher than last weeks close.


Have a great weekend.

EUR/USD Before US non F Pay roll and Unemployment figure

USA non farm paytroll and unemployment figure is coming out later today. All eyes on that figuer.

Gold is still holding above 1130.85

EUR/USD See technical Picture:

All moving averages are in the consolidation channel with the previous trend being Bearish.









I am watching some key technical levels on Dollar index (80.36) which is holding above 50, 100 and 200 SMA.

S&P 500 (1115.10) and DJ (10376) indexes and futures are consolidating/ maintaining their gains.

Recommendation:
Sit back and fish for the opportunity to come to you rather jumping in the pond.
Identify the risk part (Very important).

Weekly Curve

Week FEB 28 - March 25

Weekly Goal:

1:Pay myself as the market makes money available for me.
2: Carefree state of mind and continuously monitor and reevaluate my susceptibility for making errors.



Gold is looking again bullish with a nice move back above 100 day moving average 1107.40. Lets see if we are able to hold above 1120. Seems like investors are buying this commodity on the dips below 1090. See daily Chart.









EUR/USD

This pair is consolidating in a range 300-350 pips

Supports levels to watch are : 1.3594 / 1.3549 / 1.3500/ 1.3457(STRONG)

Resistance levels to watch are : 1.3601 / 1.3627/ 1.3691 / 1.3745 / 1.3820 (Strong with 200 SMA on the H4)

Ill be watching these levels on the H1 for entries on the Hourly candles for 10 - 20 pips in between the levels. A break below is 1.3457 will lead to a strong bearish push towards 1.3208. For a change in the trend the pair as to move above 200 SMA on the H4 chart, break the set trend line coming from 1.5140 high last year and hold above 1.3848 on the daily chart.

See hourly chart.










Usd/Jpy

Moving down a break of 88.54 will be watched and while moving up I will be watching 100 day MA and 89.51 level.


GBP/USD

Week ope around 80 pips below the last weeks closing price.
This pair is on the bonus round and might be targeting 1.5080 and is might be in a set for a rebound around there.


Support around 1.5080 / 1.5018
Resistance at 1.5188 / 1.5324 / 1.5473 / 1.5575

A rebound in the pair might lead to dollar weakness and will help EUR/USD move higher as well.


Dollar index is below 100 SMA and above 200 Sma on the Hourly chart.

I am watching

Support: 80.07 / 79.54

Resistence: 80.74 / 81.11 / 81.34 (Double tops).

Feb 21-26 Trading week

Gold: Opens above a key level for me: 1118.80
Week open price 1125.80


Oil : Above 80 but immediate support at 79.29 and then 77.65

==================================
Weekly focus:
1:Money management.
2:Keeping thing/ approach simple.
3:Trend is my best friend.
4:Implementation of my trading method and building confidence.
5: Absolutely no expectations from the market.
=======================


EUR/USD (Trading on H1 Chart)

EUR/USD opens week higher than the last weeks closing price: A bullish signal.

Bullish above: 1.3616 and or above 1.3657 (This is a 61.8% ret and previous resistance)

Above that I am watching 1.3714 and then the channel resistance and a resistance level 1.3788/1.3800).

However, selling the highs is another good approach as EURO zone is facing lot of challenges and a move above 1.3850 is the only confirmation of trend change.


USD/JPY (Trading on Daily Chart)

Support 91.27 and Resistance 92.27 (where 200 SMA is present on the daily chart)


GBP/USD

Last week the pair broke a key support level at 1.5575/1.5554 : Now should act as a Resistance. The pair is in the retracement. Looking to find entry on the resistance levels.

Equity Curve

Equity Curve

Gold Year 2010

Last year in the first quarter I was able to spot a good buying opportunity in gold around USD878.81 level since then gold moved up to USD1226.28 by last quarter in 2009.

After hitting some targets watched by some of the top investors gold kept on moving higher: Meaning giving bonus rounds to a lot of investors that entered at the right time. However, leaving a hole lot behind the game as well...which are waiting on the side lines to invest in this commodity this year.

This year started with a pressure on gold prices as a lot of investors entered the dollar market which brought the gold prices down (A pull back). Which I consider a great opportunity to enter in this commodity (Lower the price the better). Gold stock (Homestake mining) are looking to give investor good amount of gains this year as well. However, when the present pressure is released gold will again be a commodity that will offer its investors good amount of return by end of the year (Last Quarter).

Buying around USD1070/1080 is a very good price: USD1120 good price:

My target on the gold is around USD1500 this year.

Note:

This is a fundamental approach based on the information I attain by reading and listening to various perspectives of different investors around the world.

Technically USD1074 is a key level for me. If we can hold that I am bullish above that level.

Weekly Levels to be watched: FEB14-19

After a 3 week break from trading. I am back in the game ;)

EUR/USD:

Trend is my friend: Bearish trend trades only:
Short at: 1.3520 (1) and 1.3644 (2)
S/L 1.3565 (1) and 1.3665 (2)
T/P 1.3430 or lower depending on the situation

Support levels: 1.3584/1.3531/1.3425
Resistance Levels: Strong resistance at 1.3644/50 (Weekly fib level) and then
1.3705/1.3840/1.4000

USD/JPY:

I am bullish on the pair on the daily Chart:
I MISSED this opportunity in the recent relocation process. 88.50 up long

Dollar Index:

Double top on the daily chart: at 88.71
Support at 100 SMA and the level for me to watch is 79.77

I have been long on Dollar since it broke 78.17.