Recovery From Economic Crisis

Absolutely, things will get better...but we have to keep in mind..this economic crisis started from the top and came down and crashed on the bottom (Street). So, the recovery will and is going to be seen first on the top and then gradually it will (eventually) hit main street (Middle class, People looking for jobs, fresh graduates, businesses and those who really suffered during this turmoil ETC.). Its like a chain and the leader has to lead us out of this crisis because it was the leader that led us to it.

So, if China, Japan and other economies like them have been hit hard due to US. Then yes, when things will get better here on Wall Street and Financial Institutions will have stability, more and more signs of inner growth will be visible, the consumption will get back on track that will automatically bring the production on its way to better levels ahead.

However, we should learn from our mistakes and observe and restructure our strategies to lead the world out of this crisis by keeping us safe and secured. I believe our new administration led by Mr. Obama will have a strong and long lasting impact on our countries economic growth from within. The more powerful we are from inside the better of we are in confronting any challenge that lies ahead .

Us economy is back on track: Yes, I think so we have hit the bottom (too early to confirm) but the economy is a state of Consolidation....the recovery platform is really fragile. It will take at least 3 to 9 month for us to really confirm that we are moving upwards with a strong base. New administration is placing all the right tool to make the recovery with strong and stable platform so that for sure we see a recovery (Growth).

As far as the street level is concerned: I am involved in retail business as well and for sure people (regulars) are suffering...jobs are hard (Almost Impossible) to find....A lot of people are and using their savings and most of them are now broke as they been out looking for job and its tough.
Plus, It is hard to find something when you are desperate...especially job/ work...because each door you knock during hard times seems to be the only hope out of present situation and definitely present job market is not helping at all. (Skilled, Experienced, Educated and fresh all looking for work).


It is obvious that the Global Economic crisis is hitting the bottom (Japan, Germany, Spain, US, China) and other leading economies are doing whatever necessary and possible to make this not last for years to come.

This is what I think we need for a stronger growth....

1: Stable Financial Institutions.
2: Better and Stronger Regulations for Consumer. Policies that help rather than abuse.
3: Stronger Regulatory Bodies. The ones that evaluate and reevaluate Institutions, organizations and infrastructures of businesses around the country.
4: Credit Flow. For the help and use according to ones means and ability to afford.
5: Stronger Infrastructure. Federal and Local Government.
6: A Strong Educational System (That educates and prepares our generation to compete, be innovative and Constructive on the bases of Compassion, Equity and Justice).
7: Health Care system that protects the poor and middle class rather than crippling them.
8: Cost Effective Transportation and Technology system for people.
9: A Strong Foreign Policy that put/ places USA in a stronger and a better shoe. A Nation that Cooperates with its Allies and others, Leads to conflict resolution, a Nation that is Innovative, Strong and Powerful when approaching its Counters and the one that leads and supports others through difficult situations/ times....All by keeping us more safe, productive, effective and strong.

EUR/USD on a H4 Chart

Click on image to evaluate the trend.

EUR/USD between Moving Av. 100 & 200 HR

Pair is falling right in between the moving averages....which makes trading between averages a great possibility...when applied with other technical studies.

EUR/USD Long Term Picture

Upward trend: Market tested 200 D Moving Average at 1.2424.

Also, having difficulty to move...10 to 25 Pips over 1.3500...but D1 charts shows a clear picture...as to why!


See chart image for reference.

EUR/USD before EURO trading day begins.

Providing a non confirmed support level at 1.3432 see cahrt.

US Bank Stress Test

A little that I know and or understand about the stress test is ...that it is extremely important for the banks to pass it in flying colors... :) Go green Banks.
If US has to lead the world out of this economic crisis the banks must show and provide a strong support and also implement new and strategic tools that will ease up the credit flow and consumer confidence once gain but with a positive/different perspective to the next generation's financial markets. I see a boom in Private Equity Options as well.
Earlier this year (1st Quarter) we have seen US Banks showing profits....Wells, JP and Citi were the top leaders...and Investment Advisory Firms.... Mr. Buffet also mentioned that US financial system is on the right track out of this crisis.
Banks have been trying to get rid of their bad debit out of the balance sheets and re-evaluate their investment strategies, infrastructure and focus on long term equity perspective. Ill say if the Banks keep things under control and keep monitoring their financial long term approach on the bases of Compassion, Equity and Justice...then yes we are and will lead the world once again in the new ear of Financial Stability.

I see a positive results on Thursday..but you never know....present administration is pretty tough to get away with...they might bring out something that needs a key attention and immediate fix in the banking system to get us out of this crisis......or may be I am just being.... :-)

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP is another pair where we can find +ive and --ive Trades.
However, from my perspective EUR/GBP pair gives long term trading opportunities as well as short term.
If you see on the D1 chart of this pair....a clear movement between Fibonacci Retracement levels...since Jan 09.
Long term rally below trend line?
I think so the 200 D MA is moving upwards and 100 D MA have barely started moving towards the right side after a stable and a gradual climb.
200 D MA will provide a support as the pair starts to move in between the 2 averages.
Whatever the case may be the trendline on D1 shows and slide down....bcz of currency is under the 100 D MA and trend line is the second resistence...previously the currency was moving above 100 MA and beneth the trend line.

On the M15 chart you will see a different picture of this pair as it shows a lot of buying pressure at the moment....with the pair testing the 100 MA. Its happening all after breaking the trend line and taking a breath... So shall I long it or short it?

100 PIP day

EUR/USD moved as anticipated after a dip in EUR session. USD/JPY dipped towards 38.2 Ret. Level. Tuesday ttrading session will take markets into a different direction. Fundamental analysis will play a key roll in next 36 hr trading.






Glod had a jump after it dipped down to 878.81 to 906.96 in today's trading session. Also, Silver saw a 60 pip jump after a slight dip in early Monday trading session. Which also helped dollar to be on the stronger side of the picture.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD is moving slightly over 1.3300 level.
It might dip a little in EUR session after touching the 1.3355 level or over.
However, I think the bigger picture is showing a slow trend towards the 1.3500 level...we will see.

EUR and US Markets will determine the trend for this pair.

USD/JPY

A start where market still cannot determine a trend for USD/JPY..Yet..trend will be determined during the New York Session and as the Tuesday starts in Tokyo market.
Uptill now it is moving between today's low 99.14 and May1 high of 99.56.
I personally think the Yen will be on the weaker side during this week and most probably touch the 99.00 and will test the 100.00 resistance and as we get in the middle of the week the trend will be more prominent...
There have been sharp ups and downs towards the resistance and support levels. Short term trading opportunity is there but risky. S/L and T/P

US economy is moving towards a stronger side and the data/ information this week will play a key roll in finding the trend.

Long USD/JPY 99.39 and EUR/USD 1.3264

Holding positions (Long) at: USD/JPY 99.39 and EUR/USD 1.3264 will be watching market very closely starting Australian session Sunday evening.

As we know the testing level for JPY is 99.75 and then 101... Hopefully it will touch it and test it before New York Session...and will have a better look of the trend

Also, EUR is hanging in there after todays fluctuations between and below the MA level..Current 1.3265.. Kind of taking a breath there to find its trend...Coming trading week will determine its future trend.

In case currencies trend downwards STOP loss is the best option.

Weaker GDP

American people are still reluctant to bigger purchases: We all know why?
Lower income..(Huge losses in inv.)..Middle class families suffer the most bcz they are the ones that take the bitter hit, then small businesses and bla bla…

More and more people are jobless and the ones that are cannot find work….
So, I guess buying any luxury at this moment of time and economic situation is not a right choice to make. People are concerned about falling income, inflation and specially people don't want to invest at the moment….its getting better...(Private Equity options)

Car market/ Industry will see a deeper slump as housing market is already…and soon the financial institutions will will change their tone and strategy for a stronger infrastructure and more of a long term practical approach…If the government have a stronger monitory and regulatory settings in place.

From a consumer stand point both housing and motor industries are in a deep recession….and people connected to these industries are suffering a lot.

From a Investor point of view I think strategic and long term investments in real estate markets are always executed. Private Equity is the new era.. it has been there for the wealthy but I think now the doors to it will be opening for low level investors.

If we need a weaker dollar for Economic (Export, Tourism, Development, Investment and Production ) purposes then we need to control inflation and the infrastructure within need to be stronger. So the middle class can grow and flourish.

We Americans want to work not to just get buy but to have a better/ stronger buying power (dollar) within from a consumption stand point.